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7/12/18
Paul gave his SPOTY views yesterday and now here are mine, totally independent having not discussed the betting with him until after I sent through my copy last night. As you will see, we agree on a couple of things but take alternative views on the final outcome.
MORE than 10m tuned in to watch Bradley Wiggins become Sports Personality of the Year (SPOTY) in 2012, with the winner receiving 484,000 of the 1.6m+ phone votes. In 2015 and 2016 Andy Murray picked up 361,000 and 247,000 votes respectively to take the prize, while last year, when the voting window was open for shorter than previously, Sir Mo Farah needed just 83,000 votes to spring a 50-1 surprise.
The BBC received plenty of complaints about that result, the conspiracy merchants arguing they'd done everything possible to get Anthony Joshua turned over. This year the Beeb have moved the goalposts again, chopping the shortlist from ten to six and not revealing who's on it until the day itself.
The show isn't as popular as it used to be, a decline that seems to have coincided with the decision to take it out of the studio and into an arena (same as with The X Factor). And with falling viewing figures, the possibility of a half-full venue, a shorter shortlist than usual and a weak line-up, especially for an even-numbered year, this looks a betting heat to play aggressively.
The final six will most likely be Harry Kane, Geraint Thomas, Lewis Hamilton, Tyson Fury, Dina Asher-Smith and Lizzy Yarnold. That's far from set in stone though.
Harry Kane (2.44m Twitter followers) deserves to be favourite after winning the Golden Boot at the World Cup, but that's all he has won this year. He failed to lead England to the final, despite a dream draw, and he's been pretty ordinary by his usual standards in the Premier League since. Those hot days of summer seem a long time ago now and, of his six goals in Russia, three were penalties, one (Loftus-Cheek shot) just hit him on the way in and the other two were from inside the six-yard box. Also let's not forget half his haul came against Panama. He might win it but it will be by default and Sunday night on the BBC is an audience made up more of Scrictly and snooker fans than Tottenham Ultras. Other club supporters aren't really in England mode now and I'm happy enough to take him on.
Geraint Thomas (410,000 Twitter followers) won BBC Cymru's SPOTY last week but that was never in any doubt and he's drifted from sub 6-4 out to almost 3-1 for the main event in the past fortnight, the main slide coming since he received all of five seconds of coverage in the Jessica Ennis-Hill preview show last Tuesday. Chris Froome is admittedly a different case but, on the four occasions he won the Tour de France, he twice finished sixth in SPOTY, once finished seventh, and wasn't even shortlisted the other time. Would Thomas have won in France if Froome hadn't won the Giro d'Italia earlier in the summer and left himself vulnerable? Probably not. Anyway the Tour de France has always been an ITV/Channel 4 thing and Thomas is a long way from being as well known as Froome, let alone up there with the likes of Kane, Hamilton and Fury. If he makes the shortlist of six I wouldn't be surprised to see him finish out of the three.
Lewis Hamilton (5.4m Twitter followers) broke records this year and ultimately hosed up thanks to being in one of the two quickest cars but he's already won SPOTY (2014) as well as finishing runner-up a couple of times previously. Chances are he'll make the shortlist and those weird F1 types will always vote for their man, but Hamilton said last month he probably won't attend the event as it makes him feel 'awkward'. Sir Mo got away with doing his interview remotely last year but that was because he was in training and the BBC won't want the trophy going to someone who's swerving the big night by choice. Expect limited coverage as a result.
Tyson Fury (1.04m Twitter followers) has been swingiest in terms of price over the past month or so, collapsing from 50-1 to single figures going into his fight with Wilder, easing back out to the mid-20s straight after the draw and then contracting again as the dust settled. He should have been given the win in LA and a plucky draw-er who should have won is as fine with the British Public as a plucky loser. Fury was nominated in 2015, when he finished fourth (one spot ahead of Hamilton) despite a lot of adverse publicity over sexist and homophobic comments. This time round he has a dream narrative and he's unlikely to miss the opportunity to mention that he's giving his £8m purse to the homeless and needy. The fact he's already been put up for Sports Moment Of The Year bodes well and prices close to double figures could look very big by the end of the week.
Dina Asher-Smith (44,000 Twitter followers) has scooped awards from The Times and BT Sport in recent days and, if the BBC could pick their own winner, she'd be the one. Who is to say they won't? They did last year didn't they...? She interviews well, seems nerveless and is bubbly, and she's actually won something this year, taking three golds at the European Championships. The Beeb have plenty of footage from Berlin, she looks nailed on for the shortlist and she has to be backed at 16-1+.
Lizzy Yarnold (65,000 Twitter followers) finished a remote sixth behind Lewis Hamilton in 2014, when she won Olympic gold. She overcame a chest infection to become the first person to win back-to-back golds in the Olympic skeleton this year but it's hard to see her as anything other than an also-ran.
Alistair Cook, who is around 33-1, seems more likely to get the Lifetime Achievement Award than make the shortlist of six, having done nothing of note this year other than announce his retirement from the international game.
Jonathan Rea (40-1) finished second last year but there won't be any time for the Superbike fans to organise anything in the unlikely event of him getting shortlisted again. After that we're really into the dregs.
Graham Wheldon (628 Twitter followers) recommends backing Tyson Fury at 7-1+ and Dina Asher-Smith at 16-1+, the latter making plenty of appeal at that price each-way with Ladbrokes/Coral and Betfair Sportsbook/Paddy Power, who go a fifth three spots in what's effecitvely a six-runner race.
On-the-night interviews count for a lot now and both will be fine on that front. You'd happily take either over Kane and Hamilton for sure. It's easy to assume the market, which is long established, just has everything right, but given the change in format and falling audience figures, in a weak year this looks a good spot to be bold and take on the favourites. Dina first, Tyson second would do nicely.
