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9/10/18
Dean Smith would have jumped at the chance had Aston Villa approached him following the sacking of Steve Bruce but they didn’t and the club are insane for not offering him the job.
He would have got it if he were German, Italian or French. Nobody should underestimate the job he has done at Brentford. It’s one thing for an owner to go out and buy players based purely on numbers but it’s another to for the manager to turn them into what Brentford have become. This trend of championship clubs taking on big-name, first timers is a joke when the likes of Gary Bowyer are sitting out of a job.
Anyway, aside from that, a few League 1 bubbles were burst last weekend with Posh, Pompey and Doncaster well beaten at home and I don’t see any point opposing Barnsley in the outright market. They kept a fair championship squad intact over the summer and are only going to get stronger. I only included Barnsley and Sunderland in various pre-season bets and haven’t seen anything to change my mind. Luton are improving but aren’t at the same level whilst Pompey are strong at the back but have their reservations elsewhere.
Most worrying for my L1 preview over the weekend was seeing Kieffer Moore limp off with an ‘impact injury’ and later leaving the ground in a leg brace. First reports suggest that it is not as bad as it initially looked and that he is only expected to be out for two weeks. That’ll be fine as he’ll only miss a tricky game against Luton. If anyone wants to offer 8/1+ after next weekend’s round of games, I’ll go in again. The Fixed Odds brigade have no idea how to mark up this market and in continuing to offer a quarter the odds for four spots, they are just compounding their errors.
Josh Maja, who I put up each-way at 14/1 a couple of weeks back, continues to bang them in getting one against Posh last Tuesday and another at Bradford over the weekend to put himself on nine goals for the season. That’s nine after 12 games, yet they still want to lay 8/1. I wouldn’t put you off going in again at that price.
Sky Bet continue to make mistakes in their Request-A-Bet markets on the Premier League. All the bets based around teams finishing in the top half, being relegated etc. are accurate, as it’s just a case of multiplying odds but as soon as they have to price up team goals….....oh lordy, lordy.
Prior to the weekend they were 21/10 about the combination of Liverpool for a top-four finish, Arsenal to score 65+ PL goals, Wolves to finish in the top half and Cardiff to be relegated. I flagged it up on Twitter (@GWheldonRFO) as being a crazy price at the time.
That four-timer has now been cut to 15/8 after Wolves won and Cardiff lost at the weekend and Arsenal put five past Fulham (now scored 19 in eight games). Liverpool are 1-25 to finish in the top four, Wolves 1/5 to be top half and Cardiff 1/6 to be relegated. All three WILL happen. So, at 11/10, they’re essentially making Arsenal 4/9 shots to score 65+ goals this season. That’s an interesting price as I’d go nearer 1/8.
