Clear, concise, comprehensive horseracing analysis and insight from Paul Jones, former author of the Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide, concentrating on jump racing in addition to the best of the Flat and leading Sports events.
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Singing In The Valleys?

September 26th

It's Cambridgeshire Day. Given I have been manic dealing with all things website related this week I can't say that I have had time to have a look at the race in any depth but, for what it's worth, I think Man Of Harlech is a big price at 25/1 in relation to the favourite, Bronze Angel, given that he is 4lb better off with that rival having been beaten 1 1/2 lengths into second when they met at the St Leger Meeting. Man Of Harlech and Wales tonight would be a nice double for us boyos!

Jumping fans have a good card (or good first three races at least) at Market Rasen to get their teeth stuck into today. The opening juvenile hurdle can often throw up a leading Triumph Hurdle candidate so that race should be worth a watch. I'll also be flicking through the channels tonight in between the Tour Championship Golf Third Round, the rugby and Attheraces who are covering Belmont Park for three Grade 1 races that will be pointers to the Breeders' Cup. Santa Anita have five Grade 1s tonight so this really is Breeders' Cup Prep Day. I will be covering the Arc de Triomphe card next Saturday which will appear in 'Race Previews'.

Hopefully All-Inclusive Members have had a good chance to have a look at all areas of the website including 'Guest Contributions' where you will find a series of stable tours from Paul Ferguson and an NFL preview of Week 3 action from Ross Miles with his best bets. I'm delighted to say that Alan Potts, author of Against The Crowd and The Inside Track, will also be supplying occasional content this jumps season with his views on French imports given that he follows the French scene very closely.

Carl Redden's 6/1 pre-tournament selection for the Moselle Open in 'Guest Contributions', Gilles Simon, is still going strong and plays in today's semi-final and is a strong favourite to reach the final. He is now top priced 11/4 for the event following the defeat of the favourite, Stan Wawrinka, and is as low as 7/4. In fact, rather that post Carl's copy 'Guest Contributions' today, here are his thoughts on today's tennis matches:

12.00pm - Semi-finals day in St Petersburg and first up is a repeat of the Umag final from July when Dominic Thiem takes on Joao Sousa for a place in the Sunday's final. Thiem leads the head to head series 3-0 with two wins this season in Marseille and Umag, as well as the first round of the 2014 Australian Open. Thiem played outstanding yesterday in his straight sets win over Denis Istomin 6-2 7-5 with some impressive clean hitting and most notably a vastly improved defensive display which is vital in his development and a part of his game that needed improvement if he is to eventually break into the world's elite. Thiem at 21 in the world is young, talented, strong, and fitter than most on tour so watch out for him in 2016 as I feel he could be a Top 10 player by this time next year, but as for today I see him continuing his superiority over Portugal's Joao Sousa who is always a tough player to beat but has looked vulnerable on serve this week and has beaten limited opponents or Simone Bollelli who had played his final the round previous by taking out top seed Tomas Berdych. I expect Thiem to cover a - 3.5 handicap today at 10/11 with Paddy Power or at 4/5 with Bet365 and SkyBet.

1.00pm - It is also Semi-Finals day in Metz for the Moselle Open and Gilles Simon looks hungry for a third title here in this this event having won in 2011 & 2014. Home favourite Simon was our outright selection at the start of the week at 6/1 and he has looked the most impressive of the four players remaining in the field and can still be backed at 11/4 with BoyleSports and 5/2 generally, but is as short as 7/4 with Coral. Simon has the easier draw playing Martin Klizan in his semi-final whilst tournament favourite Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has a tricky match against the fresher Philipp Kohlschreiber of Germany who has played only two sets this week to Tsonga's six. Simon has won through both of his matches this week without dropping a set and today he plays Slovakian, Klizan, who has incredibly played 14 sets this week which includes his Davis Cup exploits and must be running on empty by now. Klizan looked sloppy in his opening set yesterday against Guillermo Garcia Lopez only to be allowed back into the game against the generous Spaniard winning on a deciding set tie break having been 4-1 down in that breaker, but don't expect Simon to be so hospitable. When a player feeling heavy legged and fatigued takes to the court, Gilles Simon has to be one of the Top 5 players in the world you would not want to face due to his speed around the court and determination to scrap for every point, so it is  Simon who I expect to get the job done in straight sets today at 10/11 with BoyleSports or 4/5 with Betway.

Recommendations

ATP St Petersburg
12pm - Dominic Thiem -3.5 Handicap to beat Joao Sousa @ 10/11 Paddy Power or 4/5 Bet365 & SkyBet.

ATP Metz
1pm - Gilles Simon to beat Martin Klizan 2-0 Set Betting @ 10/11 BoyleSports or 4/5 Betway.

 

 

 

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