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11/10/18
When I wrote my previous blog entry earlier in the week Thierry Henry was anywhere between 1-5 and 1-8 to get the Villa gig after tweets supposedly confirming he'd got the job, with John Terry as his number two.
Dean Smith was 20-1+ and I'd all but given up. Twenty-four hours later and two more odds-on favourites down the line and Smith was finally confirmed as the new boss. These markets are as volatile as ever, more so of course when the 'exchanges' can be bothered to put one up, which is happening less and less frequently.
Otherwise it's a quiet week thanks to the International break, so I've had a look at a bunch of Premier League sub-markets. It's a shame that Ladbrokes/Coral have finally stopped updating the seasonal handicap, as they were screwing it up on a regular basis, but I'm convinced there's mileage in the Sack Race market.
Jose Mourinho is, at best, far too short here and, at worst, the wrong favourite. For me, if he was going to go any time soon then he'd have gone last weekend, despite the comeback win over Newcastle. That opens up plenty of value elsewhere.
Neil Warnock was never going to achieve much with a plain ordinary Cardiff squad, so why sack him? There's nobody better. And it's a million to one Ashley sacks Rafa. The only way Rafa goes is if he walks and he shows no signs of that. If he was going to walk he'd have done it in the summer when West Ham were sniffing around.
That leaves Mark Hughes looking good to me at anything in double figures. Southampton were just outclassed by Chelsea last weekend, and there was no shame in that, but they've looked not at it a couple of times this season. A loss at south coast rivals Bournemouth, followed by failing to win at Newcastle could be enough to see him out on his ear. In fact, a 3-0 or worse result at Bournemouth might be enough to do it by itself. I'm on at 12-1 and 10-1 but anything above 6-1 is fine.
Bad news for anyone who's backed Kieffer Moore to be L1 top scorer, depending who you believe. The official club line seems to be that he's being assessed on a daily basis, but he could be out for up to four weeks now. Even if he's out for a month I'd still have him as favourite. Who knows, give it a few weeks and we might be able to go in again at double figures.
