Saturday Race Previews (9/1) uploaded - Cheltenham Festival Week 8 (8/1) uploaded - Andy Richmond’s Beating The Bias (6/1) uploaded - January Blog (6/1) uploaded - General Sports (4/1) uploaded
6/1/26
Now that we are a week into the New Year and the entries for the three big Cheltenham chases close today, I am calling it, the countdown to the Festival has officially begun.
This is then ramped up for Trials Season that gets underway properly in 2½ weeks’ time for a period of four weekends (arguably five some would say) ahead of the Preview Evening circuit for a couple of weeks (or three weeks in Ireland). So, before we know it, the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle will soon be upon us! Browne’s Gazette was the first one that I remember back in 1984 with Arctic Kinsman a decade later the first Cheltenham race I watched in the flesh.
At present I am down for attending six preview events including my own for which tickets are now on sale. This will be the second year and will take place at The Stirrup Cup in Barton Seagrave, Northamptonshire for Monday, March 2nd at 7.30 p.m. where I will act as the M.C. again. Far more importantly, the panellists are Richard Hoiles, Martin Dixon (Racing TV and The Horse Watchers) and Andy Holding (Oddschecker). Tickets are limited to 75 for safety regulations and cost £10 in aid of Action For A-T charity (the raffle alone raised over £1,400 last year given the great prizes) and can be reserved by calling 01536 722841.
With regards to my Cheltenham Festival Service, long-time members will know that by the end of the meeting I will usually have recommended something in the region of 35 bets between ante-post, non-runner no-bet and on the day so around 4/5ths of my recommendations are still to come. The column will continue weekly on Thursdays up to a fortnight before the Festival, from which point onwards they go bi-daily and then daily from a week beforehand and throughout Cheltenham week. Since beginning this service, we are showing a level stakes profit of 161pts to advised prices.
As for this season’s new race order schedule, I quite like it, especially having a novices’ hurdle to commence all four days. Moving the Mares’ Hurdle to Thursday is also a positive ensuring that we have three Grade 1 races on all four days. So, tick and tick.
With Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson talking up a resurgence with regards to the home defence, that has led to some talk about the outcome of the Prestbury Cup as to whether Ireland or Britain will emerge with most winners. Whilst it is true that the Brits currently have the favs (or jt-favs) in all three Grade 1 races on the Tuesday (and virtually always win the Ultima on the same day) plus have the Turners favourite in the opening race on Wednesday so, who knows, they could even be in front at half-way, the Grade 1s on Thursday and Friday and supporting races are heavily skewed towards the Irish. Over the last six years the Friday scoreline alone reads Ireland 35-7 Great Britain.
I have not seen any odds yet but the idea that it could be a close-run thing are fanciful with Ireland securing 18 of the 28 winners in the three years that followed their 23-5 annihilation in 2021 and then the score was 20-8 last year. Always beware a correct score bet as the French can pop up now and again like Easysland in 2020 and Moulin Riche in 2005, in which case the bookies would take the whole lot.
More interesting than the Prestbury Cup is whether Gordon Elliott can win his first Irish Trainers’ Championship being nearly €900,000 ahead of Willie Mullins, the most that he has ever been in front down the years. He may need to extend that lead to over a million before the Dublin Racing Festival but don’t believe for one moment that he thinks he has “no chance” as he’s keeps saying trying to downplay expectations. Mullins has been dominant at the DRF winning 25 of the 32 Grade 1 races over the last four years but I’d expect Elliott to send more of his best horses there this time.
Paddy Power make Elliott a 100/30 chance which is hardly zero and it will be interesting to see if he holds some horses back from Cheltenham. There is already talk of that with Romeo Coolio. If he was to win the WillowWarm Gold Cup at Fairyhouse that would be €60K heading his way rather than to Mullins who has won it in six of the last seven years so that would be quite a turnaround.
I can certainly see Elliott not attacking Aintree with as much vigour this season. He tends to send his best novices to Aintree so that he doesn’t have to face the Mullins novices as much at Punchestown. Some of those could easily be kept at home after Cheltenham this time. He also has better horses than has been the case in the last 2-3 seasons so this is going to be fascinating battle.
One man sure to be loving all of this is Dan Skelton who is now 1/9 to win his first of many British trainer titles with Paddy Power as, first and foremost, Mullins will want to defend his national title that he has won for the last 18 seasons plus in 2000/2001 before even thinking about claiming a third British championship. Therefore, I see his Aintree squad being smaller and of lesser quality this time (he won all four Grade 1s on the opening day last season when chasing the trainers’ championship) so holding back more star names for Fairyhouse and Punchestown, plus his team for Ayr and Sandown shrinking.
If that proves to be the case and if Elliott is also thinking the same way, then outside of the Grand National (Gold Cup Handicap), I fear somewhat for the overall quality of the three-day Aintree meeting this season, especially as Fairyhouse ends just three days before Aintree starts this season given the way that Easter has fallen so it will be one meeting or tother.
If some British-based outfits (or even Henry de Bronhead who fares far better at Aintree than Punchestown) are wise to the likelihood of lesser representation from Mullins and Elliott, then it might be in their best interests to hold back more horses for Aintree rather than sending them to Cheltenham for this particular season. Skelton has already made that decision with Kabral Du Mathan electing to keep him back for the Aintree Hurdle and Nicholls has been giving Cheltenham a wide berth with more and more of his best younger horses in recent seasons for Aintree so I would expect that to continue with the exception of No Drama This End.
Buckle in for the second half of the season as it’s going to be some ride.
