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25/9/18
It's 25-1 bar nine in the betting for League 1 top goalscorer and, with a quarter the odds four spots on offer, this a very playable market.
Somewhere around 22-23 goals is usually good enough and I'd price it as follows: 4/1 Kieffer Moore (6 goals), 5/1 Josh Maja (7), 8/1 Jason Cummings (6), Matt Godden (7), 12/1 John Marquis (6), 16/1 Karlan Ahearne-Grant (5), Lyle Taylor (5), Ian Henderson (6), Ched Evans (5).
Much as I'd like to see one of the Posh strikers take it - for a team heading for 120+ league goals at the current pace - the goals are likely to be spread around a number of players and the Cummings-Godden partnership looks about to be broken up permanently by the excellent Ivan Toney. Cummings, Godden, Toney, Dembele, Maddison, O'Hara and Walker could easily all hit double figures but, because of the endless attacking options, it wouldn't surprise to see none of them make it to the magic 20.
John Marquis will always score goals at this level but, as pretty as Doncaster are and as well as they've started the season, I'd expect them to fade over the winter. I have no faith in Grant McCann as a manager. Karlan Ahearne-Grant and Lyle Taylor have struck up a good partnership but Charlton are never going to be as prolific as the likes of Sunderland, Barnsley and Posh, and again either will do well to reach 20.
Ian Henderson has place claims but Rochdale remain very in and out and are a coin-flip to finish in the top half. It's possible for a bottom-half team to provide the league's top scorer but why handicap yourself? And it's not as though this is an up and coming youngster who's
capable of suddenly finding sharp improvement anyway.
Kieffer Moore is a beast at this level and deserves to be favourite as the main man for a Barnsley side pretty much nailed on for a top-four spot. Stendel is an attacking manager and they'll run up some fancy numbers in due course. Moore showed last season he was all about the Championship at all costs but Barnsley let Tom Bradshaw leave in the summer and Moore has to show some loyalty in January doesn't he? I'm already on at 10-1 but wouldn't put anyone off at 6-1 four spots.
I'm also on Ronan Curtis at 66-1 but Pompey are based around a sound defence and he and Jamal Lowe are likely looking at a place at best, while striker Ollie Hawkins does a lot of good work but is never going to be prolific. Brett Pitman seems to have fallen out of favour.
All of which brings us on to JOSH MAJA, who's looking the real deal this time, having made 18 appearances in the Championship for Sunderland last season. If we could guarantee he stays for the entire season he'd be a maximum each-way bet at anything over 5-1 but therein lies the gamble. He's out of contract next summer (as are other key men Lynden Gooch and captain George Honeyman) and the club couldn't tie him down to an extension pre-season, so there's always the chance he leaves in January. But Maja is 19 and playing for a massive club who are back on the up and who'll most likely be in an automatic promotion spot by the time the window reopens. He's still learning his trade and would be crazy to leave.
If he does then so be it but the general 14-1 around (16-1 with Sky Bet) is insanity considering he's an improver who's already top of the scoring charts, is getting plenty of game time and playing for the title favourites. At 14/1+ each-way I can't resist.
As for this weekend, Blackpool are still to lose an away game, having played four, and are still to concede a goal (they've only scored once), but as so often those stats are meaningless. It's one thing grinding it out at Shrewsbury, Wycombe, Plymouth and Walsall (three poor teams and one early-season overachiever) but it's quite another trying to do the same away at Peterborough. So it'll be more of the same this weekend, backing Posh to score 4+ (8-1+) and 5+ (25-1+) and Siriki Dembele to score any time at 4-1+. Both bets will more than pay for themselves over the rest of the season and there's a big potential upside.
An early goal will be key here as it will force Blackpool to be more adventurous and potentially make them the latest in a long line to get picked off at will on the counter by Maddison, Toney et al. Blackpool defender Curtis Tilt was the subject of seven-figure offers in the summer and there's no doubt Blackpool are stronger at the back than Gillingham, but they've had a soft opening to the season and will soon start dropping down the table. Any odds-against about Posh to win in 90 minutes is also more than acceptable for those who like to play a little more cautiously.
I'll also be backing Barnsley and Sunderland to run up the goals away at Fleetwood and Coventry, going for 4+ at 11-1 and 14-1 respectively. Fleetwood started better than expected but there's big 'wheels off' potential under Joey Barton.
