Ante Post Focus uploaded - The Open Championship uploaded - Andy Richmond's Beating The Bias & Horses to Follow uploaded - Cricket World Cup Final & Alan Potts' Racecourse Notes uploaded - Newmarket Day 3 uploaded - Newmarket Day 2 uploaded - World Cup Semi Final & Tour de France uploaded
Paul gave his SPOTY views yesterday and now here are mine, totally independent having not discussed the betting with him until after I sent through my copy last night. As you will see, we agree on a couple of things but take alternative views on the final outcome.
MORE than 10m tuned in to watch Bradley Wiggins become Sports Personality of the Year (SPOTY) in 2012, with the winner receiving 484,000 of the 1.6m+ phone votes. In 2015 and 2016 Andy Murray picked up 361,000 and 247,000 votes respectively to take the prize, while last year, when the voting window was open for shorter than previously, Sir Mo Farah needed just 83,000 votes to spring a 50-1 surprise.
The BBC received plenty of complaints about that result, the conspiracy merchants arguing they'd done everything possible to get Anthony Joshua turned over. This year the Beeb have...
When I wrote my previous blog entry earlier in the week Thierry Henry was anywhere between 1-5 and 1-8 to get the Villa gig after tweets supposedly confirming he'd got the job, with John Terry as his number two.
Dean Smith was 20-1+ and I'd all but given up. Twenty-four hours later and two more odds-on favourites down the line and Smith was finally confirmed as the new boss. These markets are as volatile as ever, more so of course when the 'exchanges' can be bothered to put one up, which is happening less and less frequently.
Otherwise it's a quiet week thanks to the International break, so I've had a look at a bunch of Premier League sub-markets. It's a shame that Ladbrokes/Coral have finally stopped updating the seasonal handicap, as they were screwing it up on a regular basis, but I'm convinced there's mileage in the Sack Race...
Dean Smith would have jumped at the chance had Aston Villa approached him following the sacking of Steve Bruce but they didn’t and the club are insane for not offering him the job.
He would have got it if he were German, Italian or French. Nobody should underestimate the job he has done at Brentford. It’s one thing for an owner to go out and buy players based purely on numbers but it’s another to for the manager to turn them into what Brentford have become. This trend of championship clubs taking on big-name, first timers is a joke when the likes of Gary Bowyer are sitting out of a job.
Anyway, aside from that, a few League 1 bubbles were burst last weekend with Posh, Pompey and Doncaster well beaten at home and I don’t see any point opposing Barnsley in the outright market. They kept a fair championship squad intact...
It's 25-1 bar nine in the betting for League 1 top goalscorer and, with a quarter the odds four spots on offer, this a very playable market.
Somewhere around 22-23 goals is usually good enough and I'd price it as follows: 4/1 Kieffer Moore (6 goals), 5/1 Josh Maja (7), 8/1 Jason Cummings (6), Matt Godden (7), 12/1 John Marquis (6), 16/1 Karlan Ahearne-Grant (5), Lyle Taylor (5), Ian Henderson (6), Ched Evans (5).
Much as I'd like to see one of the Posh strikers take it - for a team heading for 120+ league goals at the current pace - the goals are likely to be spread around a number of players and the Cummings-Godden partnership looks about to be broken up permanently by the excellent Ivan Toney. Cummings, Godden, Toney, Dembele, Maddison, O'Hara and Walker could easily all hit double figures but, because of the endless attacking options...
I am delighted to say that Graham Wheldon will be writing guest blogs from time to time so to help introduce him to members I conducted a Q&A with him last week.
Would you start by telling our readers a little about yourself, your background and how did you first became interested in horse racing and betting?
I started with a fruitie fixation back in the late 70s, aged around ten, but it was only once a year on the annual Pontins holiday and I only ever had a couple of quid a day to spin up. I'd literally spend all day in the arcade, just wandering round and watching others play or looking for coins in the payout trays, sometimes nudging the coin-push machines to try and make a few topple over without setting off the alarm. The beardy guy who ran the change booth must have been sick of the sight of...
I am delighted to announce that we will have a new signing joining the website later in September as Graham Wheldon will be writing a betting-related blog for members now that his weekly column in The Racing & Football Outlook has finished for the season. Expect plenty of lower-league football angles amongst other sporting content and I should warn you in advance that he has an even more worryingly unhealthy appetite for all things Eurovision than me! As a former editor of The Form Book on which we worked together, a spotlight writer for The Racing Post and the author of two effects of the draw-related books back in the 1990s, he will also be giving a few of his horse racing thoughts.
To introduce Graham properly to you, I will upload a Q&A with him next week.